Study suggests a PSA test can tell future risk.

A new study used data from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, to find the PSA threshold level, above which men aged 55- 70 years have an increased risk of a diagnosis of prostate cancer. The study,to be published in the Journal of Urology, investigated the risk of a prostate cancer diagnosis between two rounds of PSA testing, 4 years apart, and the average PSA level of the men who were diagnosed suring that time. The authors stated that ‘Among men with no previous prostate biopsy the 4-year risk of prostate cancer was 5.1%, which was associated with a mean prostate specific antigen of 1.5 ng/ml at the first screening’. They concluded ‘A prostate specific antigen of 1.5 ng/ml or greater in men older than 50 years represents an indicator for greater than average future risk of prostate cancer. Prostate specific antigen and other factors can be used to define future prostate cancer risk’

Schroder, F.H., M.J. Roobol, G.L. Andriole, and N. Fleshner, Defining Increased Future Risk for Prostate Cancer: Evidence From a Population Based Screening Cohort. The Journal of urology, 2009. 181(1). 69-74.

http://www.jurology.com/content/features

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